Belmont Stakes 2024: Early Predictions for Seize the Grey, Top Contenders (2024)

Seize the Grey saw to it that there would be no Triple Crown winner in 2024. The D. Wayne Lucas-trained colt ran the best race of his career en route to a Preakness victory, holding off a late charge from Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.

While it's always a little disappointing when there's no chance of a Triple Crown, it's hard to complain about the series of races thus far. Mystik Dan's photo finish at Churchill Downs was one for the ages while Seize the Grey's run at Pimlico was thrilling and surprising in its own right.

It makes you wonder what's in store for a unique running of the 2024 Belmont Stakes. With the traditional Belmont Park undergoing construction, the race will be held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Because of the smaller track, the race will be held at 1¼ mile instead of the traditional 1½-mile.

The record $2 million purse should attract another quality field.

Lucas, who has trained four Belmont winners, hasn't committed his horse to the Belmont just yet, but he told Horse Racing Nation that he's "strongly leaning" toward running the Preakness winner in the final jewel of the crown.

Here's a look at the probable field and early predictions for some of the top contenders.

The field for the June 8th race is far from finalized, but these horses are listed as probable starters by Horse Racing Nation along with the result of their last race.

Sierra Leone, 2nd, Kentucky Derby G1

Fierceness, 15th, Kentucky Derby G1

Seize The Grey, 1st, Preakness Stakes G1

Honor Marie, 8th, Kentucky Derby G1

West Saratoga, 12th, Kentucky Derby G1

Antiquarian, 1st, Peter Pan Stakes G1

Batten Down, 1st, Maiden Special Weight

Mystik Dan, 2nd, Preakness Stakes G1

Thorpedo Anna, 1st, Kentucky Oaks, G1

Catching Freedom, 3rd, Preakness Stakes G1

The Wine Steward, 2nd, Peter Pan Stakes G1

We'll start with the horse that's coming in with the most buzz. Seize the Grey should have earned plenty of respect with oddsmakers after a tremendous run in the Preakness.

The grey colt jumped out to the early lead and was able to hold onto it to the finish line, essentially winning the race from wire to wire.

However, there are reasons to doubt the colt duplicating his success at Saratoga. His best races have come at shorter distances. He won the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day and was able to take advantage of the shorter Preakness with his speed.

Even with the Belmont going from 1½ miles to 1¼ mile this year, that extra distance could be the difference between him winning and getting outrun by a closer in New York.

Seize the Grey was also the beneficiary of a difficult surface at Pimlico. The overall pace of the race was slow, in part, because of a sloppy, wet track.

Take the fact that he'll be making the same turnaround as every other horse who raced on Derby Day and then again at the Preakness, combined with more talent in this field and the potential for a better track and it's hard to see Seize the Grey coming out as the winner.

Prediction: Outside of the Top Three

Fierceness

Those who backed Fierceness at the Kentucky Derby might still be burning from his disappointing finish at Churchill Downs. But there was a reason he was considered the favorite on race day. He's been inconsistent, but a dominant win at the Florida Derby was evidence of his potential.

He had a bad trip in the Derby. He was caught up in an early speed battle between Track Phantom and Just Steel that left him fading down the stretch to a 15th-place finish. After taking the Preakness off we could see another strong performance in New York.

Prediction: Top Three Finish

Mystik Dan

After winning the Derby and finishing second in the Preakness, Mystik Dan will be a well-known commodity to bettors. He's proven to be a talented colt and his final kick might have been more effective in a longer race.

But the attrition is what makes a Triple Crown winner so rare. The ability to go just a few weeks between all three races and put in a strong performance every time is something that has eluded all but the greats. Trainer Kenny McPeek hasn't even committed the colt to run in the Belmont and it wouldn't be surprising if he sets his sights on the Travers Stakes in August.

If he does run his horse, it could be the makings of a disappointing performances after two consecutive hard races.

Prediction: Doesn't Run or Finishes Outside of Top Three

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone will be a familiar competitor if Mystik Dan does make the start in June. The Chad Brown-trained colt was right alongside the Derby winner down the final stretch, losing by a nose in the photo finish. After starting the race all the way back at 18th in the pack he rallied to give Mystik Dan all he could handle to the finish line.

Things could be different at the Belmont. With a smaller field battling across the same distance, jockey Tyler Gaffalione could have a more tactical trip in mind for his talented horse.

Throw in the added rest that Sierra Leone got by sitting out the Preakness while Mystik Dan was busy trying to win the Triple Crown and you have a strong bet to finish the day wearing the Carnations.

Prediction: Belmont Winner