Picks & Plays for Sunday, June 16
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 2: 7 - 9 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 9 - 4 - 3 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
She’s Awesome (#6) could go favored here as she seeks her fourth victory in a row. She had been so consistent for Linda Rice, so it was a little surprising that she improved considerably last time in that 11-length score. The 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the fastest number she’s ever earned by a wide margin. She did achieve that performance over a muddy track, which she clearly enjoys, so the effort may have been enhanced. Now she has to hold that form off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez while also moving up in class. I thought she might be vulnerable in this spot. I’m Buzzy (#2) is making the opposite class move, dropping out of tougher optional claiming races. She had her own winning streak going earlier this season before trying better foes in those last few starts. She closed well for third last time without posing a serious threat, and may be more effective dropping back down into this spot. However, she can be pace dependent, and it’s unclear how much speed will develop here. My top pick Shesalittle Edgy (#1) needs things to go better up front than they did in her last couple of starts. She got involved in fast paces that came apart each time, chasing a run-off leader two back before dueling through the opening furlongs last time. That day Fancy Azteca (#7) was drawn inside of her, and Irad seemed intent on hustling that rival to the lead. Now that she’s drawn outside, I wonder if Irad will be content to stalk, which could put Shesalittle Edgy in a position to control up front. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be clearly leading in a situation favoring the frontrunner.
Fair Value:
#1 SHESALITTLE EDGY, at 3-2 or greater
RACE 3
The Big Torpedo (#1) is clearly the one to beat in this Spectacular Bid division of the New York Stallion Series. He had run well on turf in his career debut last year, chasing home a more experienced rival after a wide trip. He then went to the dirt to contest another lucrative stakes in this series, and ran so well in defeat despite trouble that his connections had to keep him on dirt through the winter. Yet he was always meant to be a turf horse, and he finally got back on that surface last time, outrunning his odds to just miss in the Woodhaven. Now he takes advantage of his New York Stallion Series eligibility, and I don’t mind the turnback in distance. However, he isn’t catching a soft field for this kind of race. The other horse with convincing turf form is Fidelightcayut (#6), who ships in from Monmouth after running well against open company in the Jersey Derby. He was very game that day to battle back in the late stages. Yet all of his turf form has come over longer trips and it remains to be seen if he will be as effective turning back. Another horse with turf form who may get somewhat overlooked is Courtly Banker (#8). He’s still a maiden on the way into this stakes, but he ran well sprinting on synthetic in his debut, and then handled turf last time. That one-mile trip just appeared to be too far for him, but he set honest fractions and earned a competitive speed figure. My top pick is Bustin Away (#5). He’s trying turf for the first time, but I like all of this gelding’s dirt races. He won on debut at Saratoga last summer in a very gritty effort. While he’s faced weaker company in two starts at Finger Lakes since returning, he did beat a solid older rival in D’ont Lose Cruz last time. I also like this switch to turf. While there isn’t a ton of turf production on the dam’s side, his dam is by Galileo. Bustin Stones is also a highly underrated turf influence, getting 14% turf sprint winners. I think he has the quickness to be effective in this kind of spot and the Finger Lakes-based connections should ensure a fair price.
Fair Value:
#5 BUSTIN AWAY, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 5
I really liked the debut for La Salvadorena (#1) at Keeneland. She got steadied back at the start and was in traffic towards the tail end of the field. She looked hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch as the eventual winner had opened a significant margin on the rest. While La Salvadorena never got close to that one, this filly absolutely exploded with run once she got into the clear. I think she has upside out of that effort, but I’m a little puzzled by the stretch-out in distance. She ran so well sprinting on debut, so I don’t understand the impetus to go longer right away, and these types are often poor bets at short prices. Another second time starter who ran well on debut is Just So Pretty (#7), who set the pace on May 18 before tiring in the late stages. She might have just needed that start, and Danny Gargan tends to do much better with this second time starters. I think she’s a player here, and she doesn’t figure to be that short a price. Fade to Grey (#3)is an intriguing first time starter for Todd Pletcher. This filly has turf pedigree, and she’s been working up a storm over the Belmont training track. My top pick is Dancing Dean (#8), who returns from a layoff for Bill Mott. I had pegged her as a horse that needed to get on turf following her debut last summer, and she did improve with the switch to grass in the fall. She just caught a very tough field for the level, won by future stakes winner Waskesiu. She finished far behind that superior stablemate, but she was finishing well in the late stages, clearly handling the new surface. She’s been off for a while, but she appears to be training well for her return and she might catch some pace in this field with a few potential speeds signed on.
Fair Value:
#8 DANCING DEAN, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 6
Beauys (#7) finished ahead of Daunt (#4) when they met on May 2, but he was beneficiary of a very favorable pace setup. He subsequently didn’t run as well next time at Churchill, and he figures to get overbet here with Irad Ortiz getting aboard. Out of that race, I much prefer Daunt, who dueled on the front end with the now scratched Mondego through some pretty swift early fractions for that demanding distance. Both were coming off layoffs, and the pace just proved too much for them to handle as they faded late. I like Daunt’s overall form a bit better, and his tactical speed should serve him better in this spot, which now features a lack of early pace. Dripping Gold (#8) is an intriguing new face as he returns to this circuit after a couple of Kentucky starts. He ran a decent race off the layoff at Churchill Downs last time, never looking like a threat but just picking up pieces late. He’s another with a right to move forward second off a layoff, and he doesn't have to come from as far back as he did last time. My top pick is a horse returning from a layoff. English Conqueror (#6) is an interesting horse given that he seems to run best in the United States even though he’s based at Woodbine. He shipped to the states last spring and ran a couple of strong races in Kentucky, including a second behind stakes winner The Grey Wizard followed up by a Grade 3 placing. He then came back to the U.S. to just miss at Saratoga with a very game effort last summer. His form tailed off a bit late last year, but he was trying some tough spots. Now he returns for a trainer who can win off layoffs, and it’s doubtful they’re shipping all the way to Aqueduct just to get a race into him.
Fair Value:
#6 ENGLISH CONQUEROR, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 8
Chad Brown has a couple of contenders in this maiden affair. Latte Lizzie (#9) has obviously had her chances, but she’s run well in all of her prior starts. She’s had some layoffs recently, but should be dangerous here if she improves at all on her turf form from last year. Brown’s other runner is the first time starter Pay the Bills (#4), who was purchased overseas. These types are usually dangerous, and she’s obviously bred to be a good one being by Wootton Bassett, even though there isn’t much dam’s side pedigree. Strife (#2) hasn’t yet tried turf, but she ran well when rained onto the synthetic course at Gulfstream on debut. This well-bred daughter of War Front is out of a half-sister to multiple turf stakes winner Chocolate Ride. She made a strong bid for the lead at the quarter pole last time before getting run down late. Christophe Clement just doesn’t have great statistics with second time starters, but this filly is otherwise logical. My top pick is Goodnight My Angel (#6), another second time starter who returns from a layoff for Todd Pletcher. She was a little chilly on the board when she debuted at Saratoga last summer, especially going out for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, and she ran like a filly who probably needed the race. She got briefly held up in traffic at the quarter pole and then was a little green shifting in through the stretch. That was a pretty tough field, from which winner Memorialize and fifth-place Buchu subsequently won stakes on turf. She now returns as a 3-year-old, and I think she has a right to move forward after having some time to mature.
Fair Value:
#6 GOODNIGHT MY ANGEL, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
The entry figures to attract support in this first-level allowance, but I can’t say that I’m thrilled with either half. Betterdaysrcoming (#1) was a mediocre handicap runner in Europe last year, and didn’t take that much money when he came off the layoff for Christophe Clement last time. He got a pretty good trip overall, saving ground, and couldn’t reel in a couple of horses that had already had plenty of chances at the level. Perhaps entrymate Ramblin’ Wreck (#1A) will pull in even more support, since he has been the workmate of Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. He ran well in some New York-bred stakes last season, but his form tailed off towards the end of the season. He’s now had some time to regroup and returns for a trainer who does well off layoffs. I preferred individual betting interests. One to consider is Battle of Normandy (#5), who ran some nice races against tougher stakes foes last summer. He obviously deserves a pass for his return from the layoff on dirt, which he just doesn’t handle. Yet I do wonder if he might ultimately prefer a little more ground than this. Former McGaughey trainee Operation Torch (#3) just missed at this level last time in his first start off the layoff and trainer switch to Todd Pletcher. I didn’t see him have a major excuse in that spot, but he did at least get back to his better form while also getting over some quirks that bothered him earlier in his career. I view him as the horse to beat, but I don’t think he’s going to be some kind of enticing price. Royal Spirit (#4) got a strange ride in that May 18 race, taken to the back of the pack to rail the field and running on belatedly. That felt like it might have just been a prep off the layoff, and then he came back in 9 days stretching out to 11 furlongs. They reversed the tactics that day, sending him to the front before he tired in the last furlong behind a runaway winner. I think he’s got a better performance in him, but it’s not like he’s ever been the most trustworthy win candidate. My top pick is another also-ran from that May 27 race. Samburu (#9) finished only one position ahead of that rival checking in a non-threatening fifth that day. However, I really didn’t care for the ride he got from Tyler Gaffalione. Breaking from an outside post position, he settled 2-wide around the first turn but then Tyler allowed him to progress without cover outside, getting hung out in the 3-path on the clubhouse turn and then going 4-wide around the far turn. You can’t lose that much ground in a two-turn race. Prior to that, I thought he was finding his form for Mike Maker. Getting Irad Ortiz is a double-edged sword, since he’s likely to get a better trip but it’s also going to hurt the price. I still think he fits this race well and won’t be that short given the plethora of options in this wide open affair.
Fair Value:
#9 SAMBURU, at 9-2 or greater
Picks & Plays for Saturday, June 15
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 11 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 1A/1 - 8 - 9
Race 8: 2 - 11 - 10 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 1/1A - 9
Race 10: 5 - 7 - 8 - 9
Race 11: 7 - 2 - 3 - 11
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Dark Devil (#5) and Mr. Papagiorgio (#7) both figure to take money after finishing second and third in a $75k maiden claimer in May. The former possesses dangerous early speed, though I’m not sure that I love him stretching back out to a mile. The distance may benefit Mr. Papagiorgio, who has always looked like a horse that wants to go this far. However, he is coming back on just 8 days’ rest after competing in a much tougher maiden special weight last week at Saratoga. Both Remember the Chief (#1) and True Connection (#2) were well beaten when they tried a tougher maiden special weight won by the impressive firster Unmatched Wisdom. True Connection came back to disappoint at Parx and is looking to rebound, but Remember the Chief might be worth another shot in here as he drops into a more realistic spot. They only paid $10k for this son of Army Mule, so this is probably the class level where he belongs. He switches to Carlos Martin and adds blinkers. My top pick is Get It to Matthew (#4), who returns from a layoff for his second career start. He was facing tougher on debut where he set the pace before fading. Winner Reasoned Analysis came back to win the Bay Shore off that performance. Get It to Matthew also spent the majority of his trip hugging the rail on a day when the inside probably wasn’t the place to be. Now he adds blinkers for his second start and gets some logical class relief.
Fair Value:
#4 GET IT TO MATTHEW, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4
Military Road (#5) has run well in all four prior starts, earning triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures each time. The only knock against him is that he remains a maiden. He has caught some tough rivals along the way, such as the hyped Conquest Warrior on debut and impressive debut winner Unmatched Wisdom last time out. He seemed to handle two turns fairly well at Gulfstream two back, but he did get overhauled that day and now he’s asked to negotiate a more demanding 9 furlongs. He’s obviously a contender, but I’m not keen to swallow another short price on a horse who has already burned so much money. Bill Mott sends out the two obvious alternatives to this favorite. Reynolds Channel (#3) ran the fastest speed figure in this field when earning a 112 TimeformUS Figure two back at Keeneland. However, he did hang in the late stages that day after appearing to have the race won at the top of the stretch. He regressed last time with the addition of blinkers, getting far too rank in the early stages, so I’m a little concerned that the new equipment doesn’t come off this time. I much prefer his Mott stablemate Timeout (#4). This son of Curlin seems tailor made for this distance. He has been running on belatedly in both prior one-turn starts, holding his own against stiff competition in some loaded maiden races. He chased impressive maiden winner Discreet Mischief on debut, and then closed for third in a loaded maiden event at the end of the Derby day card at Churchill. He has since been working in blinkers, and will race with them here, trying to get him a little more engaged early. He has the stride length and cadence of a horse that wants to run all day, and he has been training like he may be ready for a step forward.
Fair Value:
#4 TIMEOUT, at 3-2 or greater
RACE 6
Likely favorite Unit Economics (#2) was unlucky on debut when getting off to a poor start and veering out at the quarter pole. He did close strongly in a race that didn’t feature much early pace, but just ran out of ground. However, he has now been bet heavily in two starts since then, just missing on both occasions. He lost a heartbreaker last time when making up a ton of ground in the stretch before losing by a nose. I find it strange that Chad Brown now adds blinkers off that effort for a horse who already has shown a tendency to get a little keen early in his races. If he finally breaks better, he could get forward position, but that’s no guarantee in this field. He’s the one to beat, but I don’t see much value here. I much prefer him to the other Chad Brown runner Kick a Buck (#3), who didn’t run very well at a short price last time and is now stepping up against a tougher field. I am more interested in another lightly raced runner. Final Edition (#9) debuted sprinting on the grass for Wesley Ward, but ran like a horse that shouldn’t have any trouble handling some added ground. He actually broke well but was reined in to rate and then seemed to lose position around the far turn while traveling a bit awkwardly. He appeared hopelessly beaten in upper stretch, but then really kicked in through the last furlong to just miss. He’s stretching out, which isn’t a strong move for Ward. Yet he’s bred to go longer, being out of a half-sister to a graded stakes winner over a mile. A few other contenders exit the May 19 race at this level. Among the horses who hit the board, Then (#1) might have run the best race, making a wide, early move around the far turn and flattening out. However, all of the horses involved in the finish benefited from a pretty fast early pace. Cuando (#4) was the horse who carving out those fractions, and he ran a lot better than his 6th-place result might suggest. The early TimeformUS Pace Figures for that race were in the low 150s, indicative of an extremely unfavorable pace for frontrunners. Cuando was aggressive in the early stages that day but still held on well until getting swallowed up at the eighth pole, finishing well ahead of his early pace rivals. Now the connections take the blinkers off, which should help settle him down through the opening stages of this race. I also like the slight cutback in distance to a mile as he now lands in a spot that appears to feature less early speed. This horse is bred for turf, and I think he has the potential to fare much better in this second start over grass.
Fair Value:
#4 CUANDO, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 8
There is little doubt that Marco T. (#10) is the most likely winner of this race. She beat open company to break her maiden two back, and then was simply overmatched against a tougher field in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly last time. She’s getting significant class relief as she makes just the second start of her career against New York-bred company. While she is a deserving favorite, I think there are a couple of horses at bigger prices that merit consideration. The one who is more of a reach in this spot is Capital Gal (#11). It’s been a long time since this mare has been on turf, but she ran some of her best career races on grass back in 2022. Those starts all came over longer distances, but she’s since improved on the turnback in distance, running one of her best dirt speed figures last time out at Finger Lakes. I think she’s interesting trying a turf sprint for the first time, especially switching into the barn of Ray Handal. My top pick is Mim (#2). This filly has run a lot better than the results suggest in her last couple of turf starts. She ran off on the front end two back, setting unreasonable fractions for the distance before paying the price late. She actually held on pretty well for fifth that day, and her 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her competitive here. She wasn’t as successful last time, but nothing went right for her. She hopped at the start, was last early, and then got extremely rank under Jose Gomez. He couldn’t control her into the clubhouse turn, as she ran up around the field to contest the pace while going 4-wide. That was an impossible trip and she understandably faded to last. Now she’s finally cutting back in distance, having proven that she’s a better sprinter. Trevor McCarthy figures to save ground from this post, and I’m hoping she won’t get as keen in this faster paced affair. I think she’s going to outrun her odds.
Fair Value:
#2 MIM, at 7-1 or greater
#11 CAPITAL GAL, at 14-1 or greater
RACE 9
The main players in this optional claimer are exiting the May 11 race at this level. Belouni (#1) achieved the best result that day as he took over in mid-stretch before settling for second behind winner Runninwscissors. This horse had started out as a disappointment last year, but he’s gradually improved and gained consistency for Chad Brown this season. He’s drawn well towards the inside and makes plenty of sense, but his price figures to go even lower now that his entrymate Call Me Harry (#1A) has drawn into the field. That Rick Dutrow trainee also adds some significant pace to a race that already featured a few horses who want to attain forward early position. I slightly prefer Ocean Atlantique (#4), who finished third in that race. I was hoping he would get a more aggressive ride that day, but Luis Saez elected to rate him in the pocket. He ultimately worked out a pretty good trip, but did have to wait for room in upper stretch before getting clear too late. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow and has a right to improve. Yet there’s another horse out of that race who ran pretty well and figures to get somewhat ignored in the wagering. Magical Ways (#3) went off at a huge price trying turf for the first time and actually put in a solid effort to be sixth. He broke with the leaders but got reined in by Romero Maragh, who then got shuffled back at a few points in the race, ultimately finding himself towards the back of the pack by the time they reached the quarter pole. From there he was never fully clear through the lane, attempting to rally in traffic. He wasn’t going to win the race, but he appeared to have some run in behind horses, handling the new surface well. He has to run a little better to turn the tables on those horses this time, but he’s been in great form for Rudy Rodriguez and may still be underrated as a grass horse. After scratches, there is plenty of pace in this spot, so I wouldn't mind if Romero Maragh finds a spot in mid-pack and attempts to launch a late run.
Fair Value:
#3 MAGICAL WAYS, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 10
This Bed O Roses is wide open, as you can make cases for many horses in this field. I wanted to steer away from the likely favorites, who I don’t think are standouts. Flying Connection (#6) obviously makes some sense off her improved recent form, but she was never a serious threat to those superior rivals she chased home in either the Apple Blossom or Derby City Distaff. It remains to be seen if she’ll be as effective as a sprinter moving forward after running well on the turnback last time. Big Pond (#2) went off as the heavy favorite in the Vagrancy last time, and I didn’t think she had much of an excuse. She got pace to close into and was simply second-best to Leave No Trace (#9). The latter filly has finally gotten back on track as a sprinter and was legitimately best last time. Yet she was 8-1 that day and figures to be a shorter price this time against a tougher field. I think there are more interesting options to consider. Among the Vagrancy horses, I actually prefer Hot Fudge (#7), who lost position in the early stages last time and found herself rallying from much farther back than she usually does. This filly had been in great form through the winter, and she may be cycling back up to a better effort after a hiccup in the Distaff. There isn’t a ton of early speed signed on, and she can get forward position with a more aggressive ride this time. Shidabhuti (#8) upset the Distaff back in April, turning back to a sprint for the first time since her career debut. She has proven that she’s best as a one-turn horse, and I like her getting back to another spring here after making a decent late rally to complete the trifecta in the Ruffian. She may not be as naturally talented as some others, but she fits this spot well. My top pick is Just Katherine (#5). I like the turnback for this daughter of Justify, who put in her breakout performance in the Wilton going a one-and-a-half-turn mile at Saratoga last summer. She closed into a slow pace behind Grade 1 winner Randomized that day, and has since proven that performance was no fluke. I won’t hold her last race in the Bayakoa against her, since she got completely sawed off heading into the clubhouse turn. She’s now had some time to regroup, and figures to get pace to close into as she returns in a sprint. She broke her maiden going 7 furlongs last year, and could fly under the radar for low profile connections.
Fair Value:
#5 JUST KATHERINE, at 6-1 or greater
#7 HOT FUDGE, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 11
This state-bred allowance affair is another wide open race to close out the day. Fancypants Juliana (#2) might be the one to beat if she repeats her last race, where she contested an honest pace racing 3-wide and still held on for second. However, she was a generous 21-1 that day, and figures to be a fraction of that price here. I prefer her to a horse like Kant Call It (#6), who will get bet based on connections. She ran fine to break her maiden last time against a field of decent quality, but she probably has to improve off that performance as she faces more seasoned rivals this time. U Should B Dancing (#3) could get somewhat overlooked due to her poor recent dirt form, but she’s a turf horse and is just now getting back on the right surface. I can’t say that I loved any of her races from last season, but she’s run speed figures that put her in the mix and should be a fair price in here. My top pick is Ghostbustin (#7), who tries this surface for the first time. I pegged this filly has one that I wanted to see on turf all the way back in the middle of winter, and I’m encouraged that Bruce Levine is getting her on this surface the first time he has the chance to do so. She has shown some ability on dirt, flashing speed in all of her prior starts. Yet she strikes me as one that will really take to grass, and her pedigree backs that up. Bustin Stones is a highly underrated turf sire, getting 14% winners from his progeny’s turf sprint starts. This filly is a full-sister to Time Limit, who hit the board in all 7 turf starts, winning twice and placing in a turf sprint stakes. The TimeformUS Pace Projector suggests she possesses the speed to make the front here, and I expect her to be prominent throughout.
Fair Value:
#7 GHOSTBUSTIN, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, June 14
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 10 - 9 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 10 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 1 - 10
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 7: 9 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 10 - 4 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 5 - 4 - 8
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Koru (#1) can obviously win this race as one of the favorites going out for Chad Brown, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price on him. He ran fine in his debut at Tampa, just staying on at one pace for a minor award after getting a pretty good trip. Facing New York-bred company in his second start, I didn’t think he had much of an excuse. Had found good position in the two path, and angled out for the stretch drive like he was going to win before just stalling late. I would actually be more interested in Rabaja (#6) from that race, since he had trouble, stumbling at the start before making a belated late run. The half-brother to impressive debut winner Roagna still feels like a work in progress, but has upside in this spot at a price. However, I prefer horses coming out of that May 3 race at this level, which just felt like a stronger affair. My Life Story (#10) finished third that day and could vie for favoritism with the Brown runner as Irad Ortiz takes over this time. He got a crazy trip two back at Gulfstream, making a wide slingshot move around the far turn, getting spun out into the center of the course before flattening out late. He worked out a better journey last time and just wasn’t quite good enough. I respect him, but I’m most interested in English Castle (#4) from that same race. His debut was a 2-year-old is better than it looks, since he got cut off at the start, then was unable to find a path when angling out in upper stretch before finishing with some interest when clear. Last time he had the misfortune of drawing the far outside post in a 10-horse field, and he was relegated to a wide trip throughout. He actually did well to challenge in upper stretch before tiring. He should be fitter second off the layoff, and is drawn much better this time.
Fair Value:
#4 ENGLISH CASTLE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
This $40k conditioned claimer is a tough one to handicap, since no one is particularly trustworthy. The most reliable option might be Refuah (#6), since he at least is coming into the race in good form, and you know he loves to finish second. Yet you probably have to look beyond that 1 for 24 gelding to find the winner, even if he’s a horse that you want to use in exotics. Giant’s Fire (#3) has some races that put him in the mix, but I didn’t love his loss when dropped to this level two back, and he also failed to do much with a good trip last time. He’s a horse who kept decent company but has never run particularly fast, and I don’t see much upside with him. I could say many of the same things about Two for Charging (#4), the difference being that he’s dropping in for a tag for the first time. He’s capable of beating these on his best, but it’s tough to take any kind of short price on a horse who lacks any early speed and just completely fails to show up from time to time. Showdown King (#7) might be a candidate for a rebound as he switches back to dirt. He didn’t run well on this surface first off the claim for Linda Rice, but that was a pretty tough starter allowance. He's really regressed since the claim by Linda, but she has a knack for figuring these horses out, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run better here with blinkers added. My top pick is In a Minute (#2). He has some things to prove against these older rivals, but I can at least see some progression in his form, which is more than I can say about many others in this field. He took a step forward to finish second in that March 21 starter allowance before throwing in a poor effort two back. Yet he got back on track last time, traveling well in a pocket behind the leaders before never getting fully clear in the stretch. He was never winning that race, but he might have benefited from a more aggressive ride. Now he lands in a race where he can get forward in a scenario the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts to favor frontrunners.
Fair Value:
#2 IN A MINUTE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t have any major knocks against the likely favorite Mauritius (#5), who just seems to fit this race very well. He just got run down at this level last time after carving out the fractions, and is projected to be the controlling speed once again. The only thing I don’t love is the slight stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles, since I think this horse has some stamina limitations. Yet his recent form obviously makes him the one to beat. St. Joe Louis (#1) has run plenty of races that make him competitive at this level, but he just never wins. He’s 1 for 18 with 8 second-place finishes in his career, and his tendency to settle for minor awards has been on display recently. In fairness to him, he might have moved too soon in a race that collapsed two back, but he did seem to give it up once he hit the front. Then last time he contested the pace and went backwards on synthetic. He might get a more patient ride with this switch to Joel Rosario, but I’m still concerned that he’s just not a winning type. I’m interested in a horse who hasn’t gotten a chance on turf in a while. Jungfrau (#4) tried this surface a couple of times as a 3-year-old, and though both resulted in off the board finishes, they’re two of the best races of his career. He showed some affinity for this surface on June 2 of 2023 when getting a tough trip, going wide around both turns after a poor start. He actually did well to challenge in mid-stretch before flattening out against a solid field. He then got off to another poor start at Churchill in the fall but was running on late behind a runaway winner. Since then he’s struggled on dirt, but he did show some signs of life last time first off the claim for Jesus Romero. This under the radar barn does a decent job, and I like the idea to get this horse back on turf. He also gets a huge rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano, and will be the right kind of price to take a shot.
Fair Value:
#4 JUNGFRAU, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 6
Horses without any prior turf form could attract serious support in this Cupecoy’s Joy division of the New York Stallion Series. Geopolitics (#2) may actually go favored in this spot despite coming into this race as a maiden and having no prior grass experience. She has run well in both prior starts, missing by narrow margins on each occasion. She earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last effort, which makes her one of the fastest horses in this field. She also has the best pedigree credentials to handle turf among those trying for the first time, being a half-sister to 5 turf winners, including multiple grass allowance winner Morrison. Central Banker is just an 8% turf sprint sire, according to DRF Formulator, but this filly does look like one that could handle the surface. I just wouldn’t want to take too short a price finding out. Being Betty (#4) has at least won on the turf, but she did so in a pretty slow maiden race last September that hasn’t proven to be any stronger retrospect. She has been overmatched in two subsequent starts going longer, but she didn’t run that well on either occasion. I don’t mind the cutback in distance for her, but I’m just a little concerned about her overall ability. It’s unclear that she’s really that much better than a maiden like Naughty Destiny (#8), who closed for third against maidens coming off a layoff last time and might have some upside in her second start as a 3-year-old. While Soloshot (#5) hasn’t won in two prior turf starts, she’s run much faster speed figures on this surface than Being Betty and everyone else in this field. She had been a little disappointing on dirt when Lolita Shivmangal claimed her for $32k over the winter. After another failed stakes attempt on dirt, she switched this filly over to the grass, and it’s completely turned her form around. She finished a strong second against a much better open company field than at odds of 49-1 two back. She didn’t run quite as well last time, but still put in a respectable effort against some seasoned NY-bred allowance horses. She now gets class relief dropping back in against straight 3-year-olds, and is also receiving a significant rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz. She won’t be nearly as generous a price this time, but she appears to fit this race perfectly.
Fair Value:
#5 SOLOSHOT, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
This starter allowance was a struggle to handicap. None of the shorter priced options are that appealing. I have a feeling that Lady Jasmine (#1) could get overbet off the private purchase and switch to Chris Englehart. She ran fine for David Donk, but it’s not like she ever had that much ability and might actually need to improve to win at this level. Picking up Joel Rosario helps her cause, but she was a little too obvious for me. Most of the other main players exit the May 9 race at this level, dominated by the superior duo of Pentagon and Elle Est Forte. Diamond Status (#10) hung on for third that day and actually ran pretty well in doing so, after running off on the lead to set some honest fractions. She’s a serious contender in here, but I am a little concerned about the further stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles, which might be pushing her stamina to the limit. Silent Melody (#6) couldn’t get by her that day with a good trip, and I don’t want to take a short price on her here, though she is obviously a contender. Anileate (#4) could never get involved after she was taken to the back of the pack last time. She possesses more early speed than that and might benefit from a more aggressive ride here. I don’t have much faith in the apprentice aboard to work out a trip, but I do think she’ll benefit from the slight stretch-out. My top pick is Miss Kristy (#8). This 4-year-old is pretty tough to trust after she was basically eased last time. Her last few races make it seem like she’s just completely lost her form, which might be the case. However, she really wasn’t asked for any run, as Junior Alvarado just gave up around the far turn after she dropped so far back early. I expect her to get a more energetic ride from Romero Maragh this time, so we should get a better read on where she fits. She was running races that make her competitive here going back to the end of turf season in 2023, and she might just be racing herself back into fitness. She’s going to be a massive price this time, and I think she’s worth one more chance given the lack of appealing options at shorter prices.
Fair Value:
#8 MISS KRISTY, at 12-1 or greater
RACE 9
I’m somewhat skeptical of two shorter prices in this finale. Bunny Honey (#12) looks appealing at first glance, as she tries New York-bred company for the first time after running well against open foes in her most recent start. However, she doesn’t come in with that great of a TimeformUS Speed Figure advantage, and she’s going to pull in plenty of support with Irad Ortiz taking over. She still has to work out a trip from this outside post, and her lack of early speed won’t do her any favors. I’m also quite skeptical of Laurana (#9), who has taken money in both prior starts and just hasn’t shown much either time. I much prefer her younger Clement-trained stablemate Miss City Girl (#4), who probably needed her debut last fall. This full-sister to millionaire turfer City Man just got shuffled back early and was running on belatedly that day. She has since worked well for this return, including a recent drill in company with stakes winner Silver Skillet. However, I think there are some interesting options to throw in at much bigger prices. My top pick is Pamplona Red (#7), who also participated in that May 4 maiden event that many of these exit. Breaking from the rail, she was reined in immediately after the start, as if Eric Cancel was intent on dragging her back to last regardless of how the break went. She got a little keen before settling. She swung out in upper stretch to make a late run but did herself no favors by trying to lug in. She’s better than that, and I think she can achieve a much better result with a more aggressive ride from Javier Castellano here. Another horse who could show more speed out of that May 4 affair is Luna Patina (#5). All things considered, she got a better trip than Pamplona Red, but she did lose some momentum when searching for room in upper stretch before diving back down inside. She did find her stride late in that race and galloped out well. I definitely prefer her as a turf horse. Now she adds blinkers, and I think we could see her show more speed, potentially building on the promise she showed in her debut. If Princess Summer (#14) somehow draws into the field from the AE list, she’s one that I would definitely want to include. She didn’t take much money on debut and was ridden like one that was just out for experience. She broke slowly and was handled conservatively, even while quickly passing horses through the stretch. She now stretches out with plenty of pedigree to do so, as a half-sister to 3 turf route winners.
Fair Value:
#7 PAMPLONA RED, at 6-1 or greater
#5 LUNA PATINA, at 12-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Sunday, May 19
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 10 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 10 - 2 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 1 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Perhaps they go back to Watch Hill (#7), but I’m done with this horse. He’s had his chances at short prices and just seems to run to the level of his competition, settling for minor awards. Based on the evidence of his last race, the younger rivals have caught up to him and he just lacks the upside of the rest. He does get Lasix for the first time, but it feels like a move of desperation following a disappointing performance. I think the horse to beat is Janssen (#3), who finished second in that April 19 race that a few of these exit. This horse is piling up the runner-up results, but he was arguably best after setting a fast pace two back, and just ran into a superior rival last time. He’s the one to catch, though he might have to deal with some early speed from Waflr. I could also see Solo Rye’d (#2) getting ridden more aggressively after he was asked for some speed going shorter last time. He’s a longshot worth considering as he makes his second start off a layoff after an improved return. I have to give one more chance to Arco Augusta (#1), who was a little unlucky in that April 19 affair. He was loaded with run in behind the leaders past the half-mile pole, but was gradually shuffled back in traffic around the turn before finally getting clear too late in the stretch. Then last time he got into similar trouble, but wasn’t able to find that clear path at the quarter pole, steadying and hopping over heels before finally finding room late. He made a strong late rush to just miss. Now he’s wheeling back in 9 days, but he’s been in sharp form. He won’t be as generous a price this time, but he seems due to break through.
Fair Value:
#1 ARCO AUGUSTA, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 3
I acknowledge that Startup Mentality (#1) is a likely winner of this race, but she is going to be an awfully short price going out for popular connections, and Irad Ortiz riding lowers the odds even further. She showed a lot of promise in the first couple of starts of her career, winning impressively on debut before finishing a good third after a wide trip in the Pebbles. However, I was a little disappointed in her effort in the Tropical Park Oaks. She did have some early trouble and raced wide, but just lacked finish. Then last time she didn’t get the best ride at Tampa, but was still supposed to beat those horses once she got clear in the late stages. I just wonder if she’s really panning out, and I think there are a couple of rivals in here with upside. I also have questions about the overall turf ability of Chad Brown’s other runner Lady Beth (#6). She was so impressive winning her debut on synthetic last year, but she hasn’t really delivered on that potential since switching to turf. Her Winter Memories earned a solid speed figure, but she was supposed to win that day after getting clear up front. No Show Sammy Jo (#5) is an interesting option returning from the layoff. She ran like a horse who needed experience and fitness on debut, and she improved to win convincingly in her second start last summer. She hasn’t been seen in nearly 11 months, but she’s returning in a realistic spot. Graham Motion is 25 for 122 (20%, $2.74 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes over 5 years. My top pick is Vino Rouge (#3), who also returns from a layoff, though she hasn’t been out of action for quite as long. This filly achieved her best results on dirt last year, but I thought she ran deceptively well in her lone turf start on debut. She never had great position that day, racing wide without cover for much of that affair, and still stayed on gamely for fourth against a solid field. She subsequently improved, but I think she’s more of a turf horse. She returns getting Lasix with original rider John Velazquez taking over again. The price should be fair with those two Brown runners in the mix.
Fair Value:
#3 VINO ROUGE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
There really is no one to fear in this $40k maiden claimer that is lacking in turf form. I suppose Starlight Dancer (#10)will go favored since she’s a second time starter dropping in class with Irad Ortiz aboard. I can’t say that I loved her turf debut last fall even though it was solid enough to make her competitive at this level. She’s clearly a contender, but I wouldn’t want to settle for a short price.Superstarsusan (#6) only got one chance on turf last fall and didn’t get the most energetic ride from Jose Ortiz, who just dragged her to the back of the pack before launching a belated wide rally. She obviously took to turf, and should fit well at this level as she drops and gets Lasix off the layoff. My top pick is Justheart (#4), who figures to be a generous price as one of two Bruce Brown trainees in this field. She debuted against a weak bunch on dirt, but ran like a horse who just needed that experience, trying hard but lacking the fitness to see it out. Now she switches surfaces, which was probably the intention all along. Her damside pedigree isn’t overly turf-oriented, but we have seen the limited progeny of Redesdale do quite well switching to grass. She strikes me as one that can handle it, and it’s not as if she has to improve that much in a wide open affair.
Fair Value:
#4 JUSTHEART, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 7
I didn’t like either half of the Wayne Potts entry, so I’m not pleased to see them both scratch. From the race Chuck Willis is exiting, I would rather take Joking Way (#2) out of that race, since he closed a bit to get up for second and will be a much bigger price going out for a low-profile barn. The horse to beat is arguably Lost in Rome (#6) off the Rob Atras claim, but it’s not as if this barn has great numbers with this move. I feel this runner has been opportunistic when he’s been successful recently, taking advantage of favorable trips and pace scenarios. And now he figures to get overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard. Victorious Wave (#10)seems perfectly logical as he steps up off a victory. This is a tougher spot, but he has back races that gives him a chance here, and it seems like he’s rounding back into form for Chris Englehart. My top pick is Secret Rules (#5). This horse was dropped in class to get claimed at Keeneland last time by New York-based connections. He got claimed by Linda Rice, and is now back in New York, where has had success. That last performance also isn’t nearly as bad as the result might suggest. He never had good early position after getting rated from the start. He was then shuffled back on the turn and actually did some running late to get up for fourth. He should get a more aggressive ride this time with Jose Lezcano taking over. He rode him twice in the past and sent him to the lead both times. He probably can’t beat Chuck Willis to the front, but I believe he’ll be prominent throughout.
Fair Value:
#5 SECRET RULES, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
The expected scratch of Works for Me takes some pace out of this race, which could affect the chances of Sketch (#4). Yet this 3-year-old still has a right to do better in his second start off the layoff, and it’s not as if he has to improve that much on his return in the William Walker. He got off a step slowly and was rated at the back before launching a strong late rally in a race that was won on the front end. That 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him in the mix, and he isn’t supposed to mind getting an extra half-furlong this time. I do think he’s the horse to beat, but he will need to work out a trip from off the pace.I think there are a couple of price horses to consider. Summer in Adriane (#8) ran well over this course in November, a race from which he was later awarded a maiden victory. He subsequently regressed at Fair Grounds, but he didn’t catch the ideal situations in a few of those races, since he doesn’t really want to go two turns. He cut back last time on this circuit facing older rivals in a tough allowance event. He only managed to finish fourth, but ran well considering that he got squeezed back early and was wide thereafter. He can continue his progression here. My top pick is Smokey Smokey (#9). This horse has only sprinted on turf once his career, on debut at Saratoga where he actually ran quite well. He got sent off at 26-1 and ran a big race to finish second, only losing to subsequent stakes winner Good Lord Lorrie. He stretched out after that, but didn’t seem to be quite as sharp in a pair of starts in Kentucky. From there he failed on dirt, and then moved to synthetic. He ran well to break his maiden in December, beating future stakes winner Epic Ride going this distance. He then found himself chasing extremely fast paces set by the fleet Joe Shiesty in March, and last time actually reeled that one in before getting overhauled by a closer. That has been a key race, from which multiple horses have returned to improve their speed figures. I like this Mike Maker trainee getting back to turf, and he might get somewhat overlooked off the hidden form.
Fair Value:
#9 SMOKEY SMOKEY, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
John the Beer Man (#3) looks pretty logical at first glance. He made an eye-catching late run to get up for fifth on debut, and then improved to just miss last time at Keeneland with a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, he did get a strong pace to close into in that Gulfstream unveiling, and last time he really had no excuse not to win after working out a perfect trip. Even though that race got a fast fig, I want to see it replicated, since that didn’t look like a stellar group on the way in. I actually think Brown’s other runner, first time starter Vesting (#1), may be more dangerous. They paid $228k for this son of Blue Point, best known in this country as the sire of BC Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Big Evs. However, there is stamina on the dam’s side, and he picks up Flavien Prat for the unveiling. Among the others with experience Coast Along (#5) makes sense off his last effort, a runner-up finish to another well-meant Brown firster. He lacks the upside of some others in this field as a 4-year-old, but he figures to be involved in the finish with his typical good effort. Storm Ready (#8) is a difficult call for me, because I’m inclined to be against a horse will get overbet based on connections, as a $1 million purchase ridden by Irad Ortiz. However, I do think this horse has significant upside out of his debut. He didn’t get the best ride that day, shuffled back past the half-mile pole before getting ridden conservatively through the stretch. He figures to move forward out of that race, and this is a pretty significant jockey upgrade. My top pick is Cuando (#4). I’ve been wanting to see this horse get a chance on turf since he began his career over the winter at Aqueduct. He ran well in most of his prior dirt starts, and he had an excuse for his only poor result when involved in a pace that fell apart two back. He moves like a horse who may take to this surface, and he certainly has the pedigree for it. He’s by 16% turf route sire Not This Time out of a dam who has produced 2 turf winners. Furthermore, even the foals who didn’t win on turf had a preference for grass and synthetic. I think this is the right spot for him, and he may be a square price given how competitive this field came up.
Fair Value:
#4 CUANDO, at 7-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 18
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 7 - 3 - 9 - 5
Race 11: 5 - 9 - 7 - 1
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
The opener didn’t draw a large field, but it looks pretty competitive among 5 of the 6 runners, and even longshot Strong Light (#3) has run a few speed figures that put him in the mix. Union Lights (#1) is arguably the horse to beat based on his recent consistency at this level, but he’s not exactly a convincing win candidate, finishing second in 10 of 28 career starts with just 2 victories. He’s a closer, so a lack of pace in this race could compromise him. Tepeu (#5) looks like the speed as he makes his second start off a layoff for Mertkan Kantarmaci. He’s dropping down to a realistic level after just getting a start in against tougher off the layoff. This does feel like a horse who has seen better days, but perhaps he can carry his speed farther with the apprentice. Michelle Nevin sends out a pair, of which Ski Country (#6) may attract more support. He hasn’t run that well in two starts off a layoff this spring, but he might just get getting the class relief he needs. His speed figures suggest he fits well against this crew, but he is wheeling back in just 6 days. I’m actually more interested in the other Nevin runner Cumberland Blues (#2). He’s coming off a layoff after a poor showing last September. Something appeared to go wrong that day, as he took plenty of money but then wasn’t ridden for speed away from the gate, lost contact with the leaders, and was running on late after the race was over. His prior start at Saratoga is better than it looks, since he was setting the pace racing on a dead rail going a distance that may be too far for him. Now he’s returning at the same level with the claiming waiver in use. He’s been on the worktab for a while, and shows some solid drills for the level so he should be fit. I’m hoping he can recapture some of that early speed off the layoff in a race that seems ripe for a new face.
Fair Value:
#2 CUMBERLAND BLUES, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
This is a solid New York-bred allowance optional claimer, featuring a few interesting runners either returning to this circuit or returning from layoffs. City Mischief (#3) fits the former category, as he makes his first New York start since last summer at Saratoga when he was an unlucky loser after bobbling awkwardly a few times in the stretch. Since then he’s run well at Woodbine and Gulfstream. He’s exiting a particularly tough race against open company that has produced some horses to run strong speed figures in subsequent starts. He’s dropping to a realistic level here and will be tough with his good race. I’m a little less confident in Seaver (#10), who also brings some fast speed figures from Gulfstream Park. He made an impressive late run from well off the pace to win last time and had previously run even faster on synthetic. I just wonder if he’s going to bring that 5-furlong form to his longer distance, since his prior races outside of Florida don’t exactly make him a formidable presence in here. Twenty Six Black (#2) had no trouble winning off a similar layoff at this time last year, and went on to record a fast allowance victory going this distance at Belmont. He tailed off with added ground after that, but now he’s getting back into an appropriate spot for Horacio De Paz, who has good stats off layoffs on turf. My top pick is Works for Me (#4) if he actually starts here. He’s cross-entered in the Paradise Creek on Sunday, but this seems like a more favorable race for him. There just isn’t much early speed signed on here, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be clearly leading in a situation favoring frontrunners. He just doesn’t want to go a mile, but he actually ran decently in the Woodhaven after contesting a fast pace. His lone turf sprint as a 2-year-old earned an excellent 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and he should be tough to catch if he runs a similar number in this spot.
Fair Value:
#4 WORKS FOR ME, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
I’m not thrilled with the horses who figures to take money in this starter allowance. Debate (#6) looks like the favorite after placing third twice at this level in his last couple of starts. He did seem to improve with the stretch-out to a one-turn mile. However, I’m not convinced that this horse necessarily wants to go 9 furlongs in this spot. He’s only tried two turns once before, and both prior victories have come sprinting. Linda Rice has had success with stretch-outs like this, but I didn’t want to take him at short price. I’m actually more interested in the other Linda Rice runner Strapped (#3). That horse does have to overcome a layoff, but he ran well closing over a speed-favoring surface when last seen in October. Night Effect (#5) is another who could attract support after missing by a nose in a similar spot last time. Yet he had things go his way that day and now he lands in a spot that is likely to feature other speed. I’m most interested in two of the bigger prices in this race. One of those is Storming Chrome (#1), who stretches back out to two turns after having success going longer at Laurel earlier this year. Those were cheaper races, but he continued to move forward after getting claimed by Horacio De Paz is January. I can also make excuses for his two local starts. He wasn’t fast enough to get forward in that one-mile event two back, which was contested over a speed-favoring course. Then last time he was ridden for position but again lacked the speed to get forward in a race that featured a much faster pace. He actually stayed on gamely despite racing out of position early. I expect he can make better use of his speed going this trip. My top pick is Surface to Air (#7), who might be the longest price in the field. This colt showed some quality early in his career, chasing home the likes of future stakes winner Lugan Knight and Corona Bolt in a pair of dirt sprints as a 2-year-old. He spent a long time in the maiden ranks thereafter, trying a variety of surfaces and distances. He’s lacked consistency, but he did run competitively going 1 1/4 miles on dirt last summer, so stamina is clearly no issue for this horse. He received a significant class drop when he returned from a layoff at Keeneland last time, and handled that field with ease. The 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure is modest compared to today’s rivals, but he’s now second off the layoff. He was also claimed out of that spot by sharp connections. Panagiotis Synnefias is 6 for 31 (19%, $2.60 ROI) first off the claim over 5 years with 25 of those 31 hitting the board. He figures to fly under the radar here, and I think this spot suits him.
Fair Value:
#7 SURFACE TO AIR, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 7
This is another highly competitive race in the middle of this card. Digital (#4) is likely to attract some support off the Linda Rice reclaim, and it’s a good sign that he’s moving up slightly in class. I thought he got a pretty good trip last time and was simply second-best to Rocket and Roll, who got loose up front. Digital has the prior form to be dangerous here, but it’s not as if he ran particularly well when he was formerly with Rice. Majestic Frontier (#7) finally gets some needed class relief. He was compromised by track biases and slow paces in a couple of recent starts, but he does need to rebound to be successful here. There is also less pace to set up his late run after the scratch of Rocket and Roll. Especially after that scratch, Khafre (#5) could sit the right stalking trip just off longshot Predicted. Khafre ran well against weaker in his first start off the claim for Ray Handal before failing to handle a sloppy track in his next start. He rebounded in March, and ran well again last time getting back on a fast surface. That April 7 performance may be better than it looks, since he was chasing 3-wide throughout against a rail bias. We have already seen another horse who got a wide trip and finished behind Khafre come back to win out of that race. I view him as the clear most likely winner, and he doesn’t figure to be some extremely short price.
Fair Value:
#5 KHAFRE, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
The more time I spent looking at this turf allowance, the less inclined I was to settle for the favorites. Operation Torch (#7) looks appealing at first glance, sporting strong speed figures from last spring and summer. However, he was a disappointment against winners considering the way he broke his maiden second time out. He did meet some solid rivals, but he showed a tendency to get rank and lack finishing power in his last few starts. He got shelved before the end of turf season last year and now returns for a new barn. Todd Pletcher is just 6 for 38 (16%, $0.74 ROI) first off a trainer switch on turf, often underperforming with these types. He’s not for me. I’m also skeptical of Alexis Zorba (#9). He's obviously in good form right now, and was arguably best in his last start, rushing up along the inside after breaking a step slowly. I just prefer him going sprint distances. He did win at a mile at Gulfstream in January, but that turf course is more conducive to carrying speed. I won’t be surprised when he hangs on for a piece, but I preferred others on top. Ruse (#2) is likely to display more speed after getting rated from a wide draw and having some early trouble last time. He has plenty of prior races that give him a chance in this spot, though he does have a tendency to settle for minor awards. Scramble (#8) makes sense as he races second off a layoff. He never got a chance to do much serious running in his return at Gulfstream, always buried on the rail with nowhere to go at any point in the stretch. He showed quality last year, trading decisions with Operation Torch, and he figures to be the better price of the two this time. My top is a horse who figures to be a much bigger price, and I may be reaching a bit with this one. Have You Heard (#5) showed some quality for Bruce Brown early in his career, running on well on a variety of surfaces. His form tailed off for that barn, but he bounced back in a big way last time first off the claim for Mike Maker. Stretched out to a mile, he always traveled well and sailed clear as a dominant winner. He earned a competitive 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and now Maker steps him way up in class to try tougher on turf. He appears to possess plenty of versatility as a son of Hard Spun, and he handle this surface last year. The way he ran last time gives me confidence that he can continue moving forward for the Maker barn, and he figures to fly under the radar here.
Fair Value:
#5 HAVE YOU HEARD, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 9
There are three main players in this Vagrancy and they all have questions to answer. Beguine (#6) has run some of the fastest races among this group, but she has to overcome a layoff. She did run well off a freshening here last May, but she also got to control up front that day and now she lands in a race that features some other speed. Big Pond (#2) nearly became a Grade 1 winner in the La Brea last winter before not faring nearly as well when she tried a tougher spot at that level in the Madison last time. Now she switches to Bill Mott looking to rebound on the East Coast. It remains to be seen how her California form will translate. Hot Fudge (#1) is perhaps the biggest wild card, as she was in great form through the winter, winning 5 races in a row including 3 consecutive stakes in this division. However, she just didn’t look like herself last time in the Distaff, fading after getting a perfect trip. She looks like the inside speed again and must rebound to have a chance. Given those doubts about the favorites, I want to find an alternative. Imonra (#3) has to get a little faster to upset this field, but she won that most recent optional claimer at Gulfstream with much greater ease than the half-length margin would suggest. She appeared to respond very favorably to the turnback in distance after failing to get two turns in her prior start. She also ran well in December, when just getting run down by the classy Maryquitecontrary. I think she’s found her niche in these one-turn races, and it’s encouraging that Saffie Joseph is shipping her in for this race, especially coming off that fast workout in early May.
Fair Value:
#3 IMONRA, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, May 17
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 1A/1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 8 - 10 - 11
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 4 - 9 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
This race has been brought back from last Friday with the addition of Sacred Wish (#1), who probably becomes the horse to beat. This filly was pretty good on dirt, and she transferred that form to grass in the second half of last season. She won her turf debut in the Winter Memories, and then didn’t run much worse in two subsequent stakes attempts despite settling for minor awards. She was arguably best in the Pebbles last November after getting a much wider trip than the winner. Her return at Keeneland was merely decent, but she may move forward second off the layoff. Christophe Clement sends out two alternatives. Breath Away (#6) makes some sense, as she faced some of the same horses as Be Your Best in the Autumn Miss last year and held her own. She put forth one of her best efforts in the Tropical Park Oaks to conclude her 3-year-old campaign. However, her lack of early speed is a concern. I prefer the other Clement runner Malleymoo (#3), who figures to be a better price. I can’t fathom how this filly sold for as much as $550k after her fortunate victory in the Penn Oaks last year, but that’s neither here nor there with regard to her chances in this spot. Since that acquisition, I just thought she ran in the wrong spots for Todd Pletcher. I understand taking a shot at the big purses at Kentucky Downs, but that race was too short for her and she got a wide trip. Then last time they tried stretching all the way out to 1 1/2 miles, which she doesn’t want either. Now she’s with Christophe Clement, who has picked out a much more appropriate race. She has some things to prove, but she has a right to build on her decent 3-year-old form, especially since her last two races aren’t true representations of her ability. She might also benefit from an aggressive ride like the one she got in the Penn Oaks, landing in another race without any speed.
Fair Value:
#3 MALLEYMOO, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
This allowance optional claimer looks like one of the most competitive races on the Friday card. You could see from my ML that I really wasn’t sure who might go favored in this affair. Big Everest (#10) figures to attract some support based on his undefeated record at Aqueduct, which includes 3 stakes victories going this one-mile distance on the inner turf. He did show a new dimension in the Artie Schiller last fall, rating behind the leaders before rallying to victory. However, he’s generally been a horse that is best when he can clear off to the lead, and that’s unlikely to happen in a race that features plenty of speed drawn to his inside. Even if Dylan Davis decides to rate this time, he runs the risk of racing wide without cover, which might activate this gelding’s headstrong tendencies. He’s not for me. I view Grand Sonata (#4) as the most likely winner of this race, and believe he would offer value if he is indeed a similar price to that aforementioned rival. While he hasn’t done much winning over the last year, his lone victory last summer did come when dropped down to this level at Saratoga. After that, he had no chance going 1 1/2 miles in the Turf Classic. He then ran better than the result might indicate in the River City after working out an uncomfortable trip, forced to alter course and weave through traffic in the stretch. He also ran fine at Gulfstream when last seen, just running out of real estate in a race dominated up front. Now he returns in a logical spot and is drawn well towards the inside. He’s the top pick. The only other horse that really interests me is Turf King (#3). He had some minor trouble at the quarter pole when settling for third in the Jersey Derby last summer before winning a stakes on synthetic. He returned from a lengthy layoff this winter at Gulfstream in a tough spot. He didn’t do much running that day, but he also didn’t have much of a chance after getting held up in traffic at the quarter pole. He has a right to move forward second off the layoff, but he does have to improve so I would want to demand a price around the ML odds. The other logical contender is Pioneering Spirit (#1), who might just be racing into fitness for Linda Rice, as he did last year before reeling off 4 consecutive victories. His Fort Marcy was a step in the right direction, and he should be able to revert to his preferred closing tactics this time.
Fair Value:
#4 GRAND SONATA, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
With this race coming off the grass, the horse that I liked on turf now inherits the favorite’s role. I thought Boss Tweed (#4) would really like the switch to grass, but now you have to swallow a short price on a horse who has been quitting on the dirt. This is a significant drop in class and he is supposed to be the clear speed after scratches. However, the MTO entrant that gets in You Beaut (#12) could be a potential pace factor, and I don’t think Boss Tweed is the kind of horse that can withstand early pressure and win. If it weren’t for the lengthy layoff I would have been interested in Spoofy (#9) as the alternative. He ran pretty well when last seen on dirt at Saratoga last summer. Yet he did have to cycle up to that performance, and I wonder if he’ll need to gain some fitness in his first start back off the layoff. My top pick on dirt is Four Eyes (#8). I know this horse has had more chances than the rest, but his recent form isn’t nearly as bad as it looks. He was racing wide against rail biases twice over the winter. He ran poorly on Jan. 18, but was wide throughout on a day that featured the strongest rail bias of the entire year in New York. We have seen multiple horses who were basically eased that day return to run much better subsequently. Four Eyes might have taken an even bigger step forward on Feb. 3 if not for again getting compromised by an inside bias. He’s now had a few months off but was once capable of running numbers that would make him competitive at this level. The price should be fair.
Fair Value:
#8 FOUR EYES, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Thursday, May 16
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 4: 8 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 11
Race 6: 4 - 9 - 8 - 1
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 14 - 1A
Race 8: 9 - 7 - 8 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
This New York-bred maiden event looks like one of the most competitive races on the card. Among those who could attract support, the filly that I’m committed to playing against is Focus Pocus (#4). I’m not optimistic about her prospects to negotiate a longer distance. I know she’s bred to handle a mile, being a full-sister to multiple route winner Courageous Girl. However, she hasn’t run like a horse that wants more ground, spurting clear in upper stretch of her sprints before tiring late. It’s not as if she projects to have everything go her own way up front, and I think others have more upside. The horse to beat might be Mommasgottagun (#1). She ran like a typical Linda Rice first time starter who needed her debut experience. She was mildly shuffled back after the start and was striding greenly down the backstretch before settling into a better rhythm and finishing well late. She’s bred to get the added ground, and Rice has good stats doing this. She is 7 for 25 (28%, $2.67 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over 5 years. I think Top of the Table (#5) is another viable contender in this spot after having already proven that she can handle a mile last time. That was a softer field than this one, but she had to navigate some traffic in upper stretch before staying on best of all late. I still think she might ultimately have a future on turf, but she doesn’t need to progress much more to be successful in this spot on dirt. My top pick is a new face. First time starter Devils Arrow (#3) sold for $70k over a year ago when she worked 21 4/5 at OBS March, looking very much like a filly who would need route distances. Therefore it makes sense that Jonathan Thomas has taken his time with her, and is debuting her going a mile. This daughter of Arrogate is out of a half-sister to Awesome Humor, who won the G1 Spinaway and was second in the G1 Alabama, so there’s plenty of stamina here. She’s been working pretty well at Keeneland, and Jonathan Thomas has had success with this move. Over 5 years, Thomas is 4 for 7 (57%, $6.60 ROI) with first time starters in dirt routes, including a few that won at NYRA.
Fair Value:
#3 DEVILS ARROW, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 4
She’s Awesome (#1) looks pretty formidable at first glance. She’s won 4 of her last 8 starts, with 3 seconds and a third. Much of that success has come since she was claimed by Linda Rice, for whom she ran well at the starter allowance level over the winter. Following her January starter victory she got a couple of months off and was subsequently dropped in for a $25k tag. The drop seemed a little suspicious, but the alternative of trying an N1X allowance race might have been too ambitious. She won that race, but her claim was voided by the vet. Therefore she’s still with Linda, who drops her again to this $20k level. As with the prior drop, it’s not out of character for Rice to make this move with a horse that has already paid for itself. In my view, the bigger issue with She’s Awesome is the rail draw. She has gotten outside stalking trips from wide posts in her recent starts, and she didn’t appear to appreciate kickback when she encountered it last November. She’s probably going to get outrun from the inside this time, and I wonder if she’ll be as effective with a different trip. My top pick is Beautiful Karen (#8), even though her recent form looks worse than that of the two favorites. Yet I would argue that her last race isn’t nearly as bad as it seems. That was a pretty quick pace going 7 furlongs over a dull and tiring track, and she did well to hang on for third behind the improved Solib. The horse who was chasing her early, Liberty Flame, faded to fifth and came back to win her next start by over 7 lengths. Beautiful Karen has had some time off since then and I like that there’s no significant dropdown in her return, especially since Rudy has run her for cheaper claiming tags in the past. She’s drawn outside of all the other speed, and will be tough for this field to handle if she can rebound to one of her better efforts. Her winning 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure from three starts ago is higher than any of the recent numbers achieved by favorite She’s Awesome.
Fair Value:
#8 BEAUTIFUL KAREN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
Book of Wisdom (#7) may have finally found the right field as she drops in for a tag for the first time, but I certainly don’t need to support her at a short price. She’s already burned plenty of money, and her form has been heading in the wrong direction for several months now. I can excuse her for failing to get a mile last time, but it’s not as if she was ever seriously involved in that race, having lost the early speed she once possessed. She’s logical, but not for me as the favorite. I see two interesting alternatives. One of those is Dramatic Effect (#1). This mare has run some speed figures that make her competitive against this field, and she didn’t get the most comfortable trip going a mile last time, shuffled back along the inside early before staying on late. I don’t mind her turning back in distance, and she’s getting an interesting trainer switch. Emron Ibrahim has had success on this circuit in the past at lower levels. She gets blinkers and also switches to a rider who has had more success here. The only thing I don’t love is that she’s drawn inside again. My top pick is Sonia’s Flame (#9). Like the favorite, she’s dropping down following a poor effort at the maiden special weight level. Yet at least she’s had fewer chances, and never carried the same weight of expectations, getting dismissed at big prices in both prior starts. She actually ran a decent race on debut, finishing just a length behind Book of Wisdom after a wide trip. She seemed to just take herself out of the race last time after encountering some early kickback, and was never seriously motivated thereafter. Now she’s dropping and draws a better outside post. She also figures to show more speed with blinkers going on.
Fair Value:
#9 SONIA'S FLAME, at 4-1 or greater
